In a new essay, former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes expressed confidence that the market's bull phase will peak in mid-March.

По его мнению, сейчас подходящее время, чтобы «нарастить риски»; однако фиксировать прибыль лучше до апреля — налоги и новый цикл ужесточения ликвидности могут привести к коррекции. Свой прогноз Хэйес поясняет макрофакторами и, в частности, положительным долларовым импульсом — совокупный объем ликвидности вырастет на $612 млрд благодаря снижению остатков RRP и расходам из TGA.

RRP (Reverse Repo Facility) is a Federal Reserve instrument through which the central bank attracts short-term liquidity from financial markets.

TGA (Treasury General Account) is the general account of the US Treasury, which is located at the Federal Reserve. Essentially, it is the government's main "bank account" used for storing funds and financial transactions.

Main drivers of liquidity:

✔️ RRP Reduction: The December 2024 rate change accelerates the outflow of funds from this program (-$237 billion).
✔️ US Treasury Action: Using TGA funds to finance the budget will add liquidity until the debt ceiling is raised (expected by June 2025).
✔️ The Fed continues QT: -$180 billion for the first quarter, but this is offset by other sources of dollar inflow.

QT (Quantitative Tightening) is the process of reducing the central bank's balance sheet, for example. Essentially, this is the inverse of Quantitative Easing (QE), which is used to tighten monetary policy.